Posthaste: Bank of Canada needs to 'crush' inflation with another rate hike, Scotiabank economist says
Derek Holt says if central bank doesn't raise rates now, inflation may never fall back down to 2%
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An unexpected resurgence in inflation has markets eyeing interest rate hikes again, with at least one economist arguing there is a case to be made for the Bank of Canada to act as soon as its next meeting on June 7.
Scotiabank economist Derek Holt said the central bank is in a “race against the clock” with high prices. “If the BoC doesn’t adopt the crush it, killer mentality, then it may never succeed in getting inflation down to two per cent,” he said in a note to clients on May 17.
Statistics Canada reported on May 16 that the April consumer price index (CPI) accelerated 4.4 per cent from a year ago, a faster pace than the 4.1 per cent expected by economists.
The Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark rate to 4.5 per cent from 0.5 per cent over the past year in a bid to bring inflation that surged to a four-decade high back to earth.
Holt, known on Bay Street as a vocal critic of the central bank’s decision to not move rates sooner last year, said there are a few pressing arguments to be made in favour of Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem raising rates at the June 7 meeting. Among them is the bogeyman of inflation expectations.
“There is the debate over crushing it now versus hanging out higher for longer,” Holt said in the note. “The way I settle that is by portraying the challenge of getting inflation under control as a race against the clock.”
The longer higher inflation continues, the more it will erode consumer and business confidence in the Bank of Canada’s ability to achieve its two-per-cent target, he said.
Holt believes higher inflation “has already gone on too long,” and that consumers and businesses have possibly lost faith in the two-per-cent mantra, at least in the near term. As evidence, he pointed to the bank’s most recent consumer and business surveys. They showed that consumers expect inflation of about six per cent over the next year, cooling to just above four per cent two years from now. Businesses expect inflation to hover just below four per cent over the next two years.
The bank’s recent Monetary Policy Report (MPR) said that “most respondents to business and consumer surveys still think that CPI inflation will be higher than the bank’s inflation forecast over the next two years.” Bank forecasts are for inflation of 3.5 per cent in 2023 and 2.3 per cent in 2024.
Holt also cited pay increases negotiated in recent collective bargaining agreements as evidence that people expect higher inflation for longer. “No one really believes in two per cent for years to come,” he said. Just weeks ago, Ottawa and the Public Service Alliance of Canada agreed to a contract, following a country-wide strike, that included a wage increase of 12.6 per cent over a four-year period, retroactive to June 2021.
Macklem himself hasn’t ruled out further rate hikes. In the central bank’s April rate decision, where it held at 4.5 per cent, it opened the door to future increases, saying “it remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the two-per-cent target.” Macklem repeated that message in a speech to the Toronto Board of Trade on May 4.
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A Canadian upstart that positioned itself as a counterweight to China’s dominance of critical minerals is considering selling assets after the cost of the refinery it is building north of Toronto surged by at least 85 per cent.
Shares of Electra Battery Materials Corp. plummeted on the news May 11 of an 85 per cent increase in the cost of one of its crucial projects.
The company, which has received funding from Ottawa and Ontario, counts commodities giant Glencore PLC among its customers.
Read Naimul Karim’s story here.
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- Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem and senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers will hold a news conference in Ottawa at 11 a.m. to discuss the bank’s financial system review
- Canada’s Minister of Natural Resources, Jonathan Wilkinson, and B.C.’s Minister of Energy, Mines and Low Carbon Innovation, Josie Osborne, will provide updates on their ministries and the work being done in Surrey, B.C. A panel of leaders in the LNG, mining, and forestry industries will discuss the current state of their sector, the future of their industry, how these three industries interconnect and the business opportunities
- SNC-Lavalin Group holds its annual meeting of shareholders in Montreal
- Today’s data: Statistics Canada will release employment insurance data for March 2023. Also expected: U.S. initial and continuing jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook and U.S. existing home sales
- Earnings: Lightspeed Commerce Inc., Canada Goose Holdings Inc., Walmart Inc.
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- ‘It’s critical that we get mining right’: Yukon copper mine shut down amid environmental scrutiny
- Why Canada’s two big railways are livid over Justin Trudeau’s attempt to force competition
- Why shareholders are complaining about buybacks hitting record high
- Keystone pipeline oil spill result of design and construction issues, operations lapses: report
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You wouldn’t think investors would mind share buybacks as they have the potential to lift stock prices. But, apparently, a growing number of investors have become disenchanted with the practice, which reached records levels last year. Prominent market players are now concerned that share buybacks boost executive bonuses but provide only limited benefits to shareholders. Read the story here.
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Today’s Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic, (@gsuhanic), with additional reporting from The Canadian Press, Thomson Reuters and Bloomberg.
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